Preseason Rankings
Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#49
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#320
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 6.8% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 6.8% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 11.9% 6.8% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.3% 39.7% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.3% 37.6% 15.2%
Average Seed 7.7 7.7 8.7
.500 or above 75.7% 78.4% 51.7%
.500 or above in Conference 46.3% 48.2% 29.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.4% 7.2%
First Four5.4% 5.5% 3.9%
First Round34.7% 37.1% 13.7%
Second Round20.9% 22.4% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.1% 9.8% 2.9%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.4% 1.6%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 5.91.6 - 5.9
Quad 1b1.6 - 2.33.2 - 8.2
Quad 23.2 - 2.56.4 - 10.8
Quad 34.8 - 1.411.2 - 12.2
Quad 47.2 - 0.418.4 - 12.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 181   Illinois-Chicago W 78-67 90%    
  Nov 08, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 86-60 99%    
  Nov 14, 2018 149   Radford W 69-60 86%    
  Nov 17, 2018 164   William & Mary W 80-70 87%    
  Nov 20, 2018 182   Duquesne W 74-63 88%    
  Nov 24, 2018 89   DePaul W 73-69 74%    
  Nov 27, 2018 76   Illinois W 75-72 70%    
  Dec 04, 2018 53   Oklahoma W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 08, 2018 50   @ UCLA W 75-74 40%    
  Dec 15, 2018 27   Purdue L 68-71 42%    
  Dec 18, 2018 269   Binghamton W 75-59 95%    
  Dec 20, 2018 289   Jacksonville W 79-62 96%    
  Dec 29, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 79-55 99%    
  Jan 01, 2019 20   @ Virginia Tech L 71-75 29%    
  Jan 05, 2019 12   Syracuse L 62-67 42%    
  Jan 12, 2019 78   Boston College W 74-71 69%    
  Jan 15, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 71-79 17%    
  Jan 19, 2019 38   North Carolina St. L 75-76 57%    
  Jan 22, 2019 113   @ Georgia Tech W 68-62 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 2   Virginia L 55-64 31%    
  Jan 28, 2019 4   Duke L 70-79 32%    
  Feb 02, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 74-71 50%    
  Feb 06, 2019 23   @ Miami (FL) L 68-71 30%    
  Feb 10, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 68-62 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 2   @ Virginia L 55-64 16%    
  Feb 19, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 75-69 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 20   Virginia Tech L 71-75 48%    
  Feb 25, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 73-77 28%    
  Mar 03, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 72-71 42%    
  Mar 06, 2019 18   Clemson L 65-69 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 71-61 71%    
Projected Record 18.4 - 12.6 8.3 - 9.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.8 0.2 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.7 1.2 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.0 2.1 0.2 10.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 4.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 5.5 8.0 10.7 11.8 12.0 12.0 10.2 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-2 82.6% 0.5    0.4 0.2
15-3 58.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 22.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.3% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.4% 98.4% 7.2% 91.2% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.3%
12-6 6.6% 96.8% 8.2% 88.6% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.6%
11-7 8.5% 86.0% 5.3% 80.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 85.2%
10-8 10.2% 65.1% 3.4% 61.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.5 63.9%
9-9 12.0% 44.9% 2.7% 42.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.6 43.4%
8-10 12.0% 16.0% 1.8% 14.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 14.5%
7-11 11.8% 4.6% 1.4% 3.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2 3.2%
6-12 10.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.3%
5-13 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
4-14 5.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
3-15 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 37.3% 3.1% 34.2% 7.7 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.9 4.1 4.3 5.0 4.9 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.7 35.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0